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Tab has opened the markets here. $1.35 for the independents to win.
The Liberals have a moderate candidate for the first time since the 1990s so probably a swing here especially on the notional TPP.
Bentley
It’s a single member electorate.
They should cut Zali’s margin quite a bit but they won’t win
The Liberals definitely have a high-profile, talented, and presumably-moderate candidate in Jaimee Rogers, a former sports & TV presenter. Unfortunately for her she’s up against a very popular ex-Olympian Zali Steggall (teal MP for Warringah), who should hold this seat until either retires, Liberals become super-moderate again (very unlikely), or if the teals are on the nose/Zali becomes unpopular in the electorate.
Predicition: IND hold, 6% IND v LIB
@ James
I think the Libs should aim for a primary vote of around 40% and to have a notional TPP margin of around 4-5% against Labor.
Warringah is taking up almost all of North Sydney LGA. At the last election, the Labor primary vote in North Sydney (the electorate) was high and teal vote was low, compared to Warringah’s. The low teal vote, could be attributed to Trent Zimmerman’s personal vote, as a moderate Liberal, as well Labor putting in effort and Kylea Tink not having the political profile as Zali Steggall.
Now those factors are gone. I reckon the North Sydney LGA part will swing teal to the mid to high 30s on primaries whilst Labor’s vote retreats and there’s no Liberal incumbent there like last time. This will be countered by a drop in the teal vote in the remaining parts of Warringah.
Question
Did all the seat of North Sydney go
To Warringah.Bennelong and Bradfield
@Mick Quinlivan – yes it did.
Basically North Sydney Council (the remainder) went to Warringah, Willoughby went to Bradfield (as small apert was already there) and Lane Cove and Hunters Hill went to Bennelong. The only exception is that the West Ward of Willoughby (most of it) went to Bennelong also.
I left a comment on Bradfield as to the difference between the seat swing and the state swing.Here are the figures for Warringah:
Seat swing State swing
2007 -1.0 -3.5
2010 +4.9 +4.1
2013 +2.9 +0.7
2016 -9.2 -4.7
2019 -12.6 -0.4
2022 -1.4 -4.5
Note the swing in 2022 is treated as negative as it was the increase in Steggall’s vote.
Collectively, there has been swing against the Liberals of 23.2% over 3 elections.That figure suggests a correction is coming-whether it is enough to oust Steggall remains to be seen,but if she survives her new margin will likely be a single digit figure.